Tariffs are high. Traders are betting on economic collapse. Everything is beige. Everything is expensive. From high egg prices to bland clothes, there seem to be many indicators that the U.S economy is heading towards a recession. But is it? Or are these just unwarranted fears?
A recession is characterized by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Recessions usually last between six and 18 months. Even though we are not technically in a recession yet, some believe that we are heading towards one.
Tariffs have greatly contributed to the growing fears of a recession. During the first few months of Donald Trump’s presidency, he introduced the most severe and wide-ranging tariffs seen in a century. According to the BBC, “HSBC and Standard Charted— which operate at the intersection of international trade between east and west— were both down more than 10% overnight before recovering some ground.”
In addition to that, an article from NBC states “Traders on prediction markets [are] increasingly betting on an economic downturn. Polymarket, for example, currently places the odds on a recession in 2025 at 40%— a sharp jump of nearly 20 percentage points in under a month.” Goldman Sachs has also raised the probability of a U.S recession from 35% to 45%— assuming that the tariffs are rolled back.
Unfortunately, the measure of how consumers feel about the economy has also trended upward this decade until January 2025, where it made a steep dropoff.
The price of essential goods can also help gauge whether we are heading towards an economic downturn. AP News states that “U.S egg prices increased again last month to reach a new record-high of $6.23 per dozen despite President Donald Trump’s predictions.”
Although traders and tariffs and prices are good, clear indicators of a recession, there is another sign that is often overlooked. Fashion. The term “recession-core” was coined in 2023, describing the type of fashion trends that signify a looming recession.
In an interview with Business Insider, Anne Higonnet, an art history professor, described recession-core as “Entrenchment. Less daring designs. Revivals of the past as opposed to some wild new thing.” Essentially, recession fashion is defined as bland, neutral, and basic.
The rising popularity of these basics— in part shown by the rise of the “quiet luxury” and “clean girl” trends— indicates that consumers are being restricted by money and are therefore only buying essentials. This trend has also been seen in past recessions, such as the Great Recession of 2008.
The question of whether we are in a recession is all in the eye of the beholder. Some might say that these indicators are insufficient evidence. Some might say it is evident that we are careening towards economic collapse. But it is all a matter of opinion. What do you think?